CurrentOfferings.com Story:

Are tech markets still stingy?

Eric Hellweg, CNN Money, June 28, 2004

Recent IPOs have gotten a lot of buzz. But that doesn't mean the money is easy.

SAN FRANCISCO (CNN/Money) - Two big pieces of tech-related IPO news last week: First, Google amended its SEC filing to warn prospective investors more explicitly that its stock price may decline on its opening day because of the Dutch auction process. The second newsmaker was Salesforce.com, which finally kept its CEO muzzled long enough that it was able to go public.

And it went public in a big way, rising 56.4 percent on its first day. By Monday, Salesforce.com (CRM) was still 45 percent above the offering price of $11.

While Salesforce grabbed a lot of the financial headlines, its offering was actually the third tech-related IPO during the past week and a half. The first came from Blackboard (BBBB), a maker of educational software, which shot up more than 40 percent on day one and is still well above its initial price.

Motive, a management software firm, went public on Friday, and on Monday was up modestly from its initial price.

The beginning of something beautiful?

So do these offerings a trend make? Is the market finally ready to fall in love with tech companies again?

I polled a handful of technology and IPO observers to get an assessment of the market's attitude toward tech companies. "Certainly, the attractive performance of Salesforce.com should bode well for other technology IPOs in registration," said Jeffrey Hirschkorn of Current Offerings. "The keys to success are profits, profits, and business excitement."

Right now, several other technology companies sit in the IPO pipeline. Aside from Google, these companies include pop-up ad company Claria, desktop Linux firm Lindows, and Seven Networks, a wireless e-mail provider.

Should investors jump in early on these firms, in anticipation of a first-day pop? Not necessarily. Even though the recent IPOs have been successful, the markets are still treacherous waters for technology concerns.

Not long ago, two other tech firms in the pipeline were Brightmail, an enterprise e-mail provider, and Advertising.com, a firm that offers online direct-marketing services. Each had strong financials when it filed to go public, but each decided to accept a buyout offer from a larger company rather than risk the slings and arrows of the public markets.

With strong companies such as these opting not to go public, one can't help but wonder how accommodating the market is for tech issues. "The IPO is no longer a reflex action," says Tom Taulli, a partner with Bridgewater Capital. "M&A; may be a better alternative. Companies are assessing whether they should try the IPO or take the cash, where they know they'll at least get something."

As impressive as these recent tech IPO gains are, investors shouldn't assume that the market is ready to embrace all things tech again. "The market is still very stingy," Taulli says. "We haven't broken out of that yet. Even if you're a great company like Brightmail and Advertising.com, that may not be enough. The bar is still incredibly high."

Some of the tech companies currently in the IPO pipeline will be able to clear that bar, but others may want to consider other options instead.

ERIC HELLWEG is a contributor to CNN Money and is author of Tech Biz, a widely read feature.

 

 
 
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